The Hidden Trap Behind Your Gut Feeling
Picture this. It is your company’s annual dinner. Everyone is half-listening to the emcee, waiting for the big moment: the grand lucky draw. 3 mystery boxes sit under the spotlight. One hides the grand prize, a family holiday to Japan. Flights, hotels, the whole deal.
Your name is called. You step up. You choose Box B. The emcee opens Box A. Empty. He smiles and asks you, “Do you want to switch to Box C?”
Almost everyone says no. It feels fair: two boxes left, one prize.50:50, right? Your gut whispers, “Stick with your first choice.” You feel loyal to it. It feels right.
But the math says switching doubles your odds. Staying feels safe, but staying keeps you trapped behind the odds you started with. This is the Monty Hall paradox. It is not just a party trick. It is a mirror for the bias leaders cling to every day. We trust our first instinct because it makes us feel in control. But instinct is not always wisdom. It is often just the easiest lie your brain knows how to tell you.
Where Bias Hides: Real Rooms, Real Stakes
I have seen this instinct cost real money, real people, real futures.
One moment that still shapes me happened during our campus project. Multiple consultants, planners, engineers, and our own internal team. All talented, all invested. But our bias was clear: we fell in love with our first plan. The dream. The clean drawing, the neat budget, the timeline that made everyone nod.
Our lead architect did not give a big speech about blowing it up. He modelled something harder. He stayed grounded in his role: protect the client, guard the budget, hold the timeline. He ran the numbers relentlessly. He called out what the first plan was hiding. And when the truth showed up, he stood firm to switch course, even when it offended other professionals in the room.
He reminded me: a biased leader clings to being liked. A situational leader holds to being credible. He was willing to be unpopular in the moment so we would not have to pay for a poor instinct for years.
When Giants Fall to Gut Feel
Bias traps even the best. Take Wang Laboratories, a tech giant in the 70s and 80s. Dr. An Wang’s genius built an empire on proprietary word processors. But when the PC revolution came, he stuck to the door that made him king. He doubled down instead of switching to open systems and personal computing.
By the time they tried to pivot, the window was gone. IBM and Apple owned the market. They did not lose because of competitors alone. They lost because instinct felt safer than what the math demanded. Their first instinct, to protect the old door, cost them the next one. Bias did what competition could not do: it buried them.
Our COVID Wake-Up Call: A Real Switch
This is not just about billion-dollar companies. It is personal. It is local. I have lived this switch with people I love and lead.
When Malaysia’s first MCO was announced, most schools trusted their gut: swap the holiday. After all, it was only 14 days. I remember the relief in the room, a sense that we could just hold on. But one of our interns, someone many would overlook, raised the one question that cut through our bias: “If Wuhan closed the city for 3 months, will Malaysia be able to resolve COVID after 14 days?”
That single question was the mirror. It exposed our hidden bias: we wanted comfort. We wanted the old door. Senior educators pushed back. “We did not sign up for this.” “Kids should not learn through screens.” People were offended. But leadership is not about protecting the perfect scenario. It is about refusing to protect your bias when reality changes.
We made the switch. We became the first school in Malaysia to go fully online. It was not a popular decision, but it protected what mattered: learning continuity, families’ trust, our team’s future. That single switch did not just help us survive. It positioned us to grow six times over in two years.
If we had clung to our first instinct, we would have protected an empty door and lost the only one that mattered.
Sometimes the door you protect is not your anchor. It is your anchor chain.
The Paradox: Bias vs Situational Leadership
Psychologists like Daniel Kahneman have shown how bias works. Our brain loves stories more than data. Representativeness, availability, anchoring: shortcuts that feel fair but shrink our odds. Your gut wants neat answers. But the moment the context shifts, your survival wiring becomes your lid.
Maxwell’s Law of the Lid says your leadership capacity sets the ceiling for your impact. Bias is the lid that keeps you small. Situational discipline, the courage to switch doors when the odds change, is what lifts it.
The 3R’s: A Guardrail for When to Switch
When the pressure comes, the deadlines, the old assumptions, the stakeholder pushback, I go back to three simple questions:
- Role: What seat am I really in right now? Guardian, owner, steward, change agent?
- Responsibility: Who or what am I defending? The idea, the legacy, the people, or my pride?
- Risk: What is the cost if we stick? What odds could we unlock if we switch?
This keeps me from playing hero to my own instinct.
How to Switch Doors in Real Life
Situational leadership is not indecision. It is the discipline to doubt your first instinct and update it when reality demands. That is the edge.
Practice Humility: Acknowledge your bias, especially when you are the most certain.
Slow Down and Reflect: Build a cooling-off window for big calls.
Gather Diverse Perspectives: Listen to the “intern” in the room. Sometimes they are the mirror that saves you.
Embrace the Math: Run the real odds. Comfort will lie to you. The numbers will not.
The Reverse That Redefines It All
Your first instinct is not your truth. It is your trap.
The opposite of situational leadership is not rigidity. It is self-preservation disguised as loyalty. Wang Labs clung to their winning door and lost everything. Our campus team could have stayed liked and paid for it for years. Our school could have protected tradition and let our families down when they needed us most.
Bias will tell you the door you know is the door you need. Leadership is the discipline to switch when the odds say so.
Next time you stand in front of three doors, pause. Ask yourself: Which one am I clinging to just because it feels safe? What is the worst that could happen if I switch? And what breakthrough might be waiting on the other side?
That is where your next level lives. That is where your legacy breathes.
